Heismanology

by Arnaldo

Heismanology: the study behind the assessment of players and their skills, and their likelihood of being awarded the Heisman Trophy.

The Heisman Memorial Trophy Award is the single most coveted award in sports.  Only 56 living persons can call themselves Heisman Trophy winners.  That title will accompany their names for as long as they live, and will be uttered just about every time they are mentioned.

How do you not trust this face?

The Heisman Trophy is presented to the most outstanding college football player.  That term is important because it's supposed to mean the "pursuit of excellence with integrity", which its recipients are expected to represent.  2005 Heisman recipient Reggie Bush returned his trophy when allegations of NCAA violations arose, but interestingly enough, O.J. Simpson still has his.  So when looking at Heisman candidates, unlike other awards where stats are read and trophies are appropriately awarded, the Heisman Trophy requires its voters to take several different factors into consideration.


Who is considered?


Who gets chosen to compete for the Heisman is a delicate subject open to much debate.  It's why the term Heismanology exists.  How do we compare a quarterback to a running back?  Where to defensive backs fit it?  And what if there's a REALLY good offensive lineman?  Shouldn't he be able to receive the award?

All legitimate questions.  Unfortunately, there are no conversion factors for passing touchdowns to rushing yards or tackles for loss made.  Instead, voters have to rate a player in his position and compare him to other players in theirs.  But at least players within the same position are easy to compare, right?  Give it to the quarterback with the most passing yards.  Done... Still not that easy.  There are other factors which need to be considered.  How did that player earn those statistics, and against what competition?  Conferences and strengths of schedule are all factors which are heavily considered.  Another significant intangible is referred to as "Heisman moments".  Voters and fans like to see candidates have a big plays around the end of the season, despite their progress throughout the entire year.  This is purely political and subjective, but unfortunately it has a huge influence on voters.  Minor factors include players' activities off the field, and how they influence their team's moral and performance.

Cast on your non-throwing
arm? How original.

Tim Tebow: trend setter.

For example, in 2008, the top two candidates were Sam Bradford and Tim Tebow.  Tebow had just won the award the previous year and had to compete against himself as well as Bradford, but team circumstances prevented Tebow from achieving the same stats.  The Gators were winning games by very comfortable margins and sitting Tebow early in the 4th quarter (sometimes in the 3rd) and had more playmakers to spread the wealth, so his stats were naturally less impressive, though Tebow was widely regarded as much improved from '07.  Oklahoma had a very similar season winning the same number of games by giant margins, but while Tebow was sitting on the bench, Bradford was still throwing touchdowns late into games.  Voters were forced to choose between who they believe was more skilled, or who was having a more outstanding season.

How are they voted on?

The Heisman recipient is chosen by mostly football journalist, because they are "informed, competent, and impartial."  145 media voters are chosen from each of six regions for a total of 870 media votes.  All living Heisman winners also get a vote, totaling 56 (Reggie Bush is ineligible, but somehow O.J. is, though it's not certain if he's allowed to vote while imprisoned).  One last vote is given to a fan poll on ESPN.com.

Voters are given access to an online ballot where they enter their top three candidates in order.  Each first place votes receives 3 points, second place votes get 2 points, and third places votes receive 1 point.  The candidate with the most points is awarded the Heisman.  This brings up another BCS-style controversy.  Under this system, a candidate could receive the most first place votes but not win the Heisman, as long as another candidate accumulates enough second and third place votes.  Back to 2008; Tim Tebow had the most first place votes, but Sam Bradford won the trophy with a flood of second place votes.  Think this through: most people felt Sam Bradford was the second most outstanding player in college football and he won the Heisman. 

2011 candidates

Andrew Luck #12 - Quarterback, Stanford

Trent Richardson #3 - Running back, Alabama

Robert Griffin III #10 - Quarterback, Baylor

Montee Ball #28 - Running back, Wisconsin

Tyrann Mathieu #7 - Cornerback, LSU

Andrew Luck has be revered as the most complete and NFL-ready quarterback.  Not only is he ready to dominate in the NFL, he was ready last year.  Despite being the Heisman runner-up to Cam Newton, it was unquestionable that Luck would be chosen No. 1 over all in the 2011 NFL Draft.  Instead Luck decided to stay at Standford for another year, and he's still eligible for yet another.  Since that time, he's been the clear favorite to win the 2011 Heisman and the No. 1 pick all over again.  Luck had a flawless season up until Stanford's loss to Oregon where he threw two interception, the most in any game this season.  Since the loss, Luck never again reached the 70%-85% completion rating that earned him such a lofty lead early on, and interceptions became a weekly occurrence.  He lacked any definite late-season "Heisman moments" which will hurt his stock.  He finished the regular season with 3,170 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions.  Voters will be torn with Luck.  They will recognize his remarkable ability as second to none, but must also admit that the Stanford quarterback's year was not outstanding.

Trent Richardson is your prototypical freight train running back.  When he's not plowing over linebackers, he's juking them, stiff-arming corners, and out running safeties; there's little Trent Richardson can't do.  His biggest claim is the list of defenses he did so against.  There's no longer any debate that the SEC houses the best defenses in amateur football.  Draft experts point at almost the entire LSU and Alabama defensive starters as draftable, and not just that, but all in the first three rounds.  And it was against the nation's best defenses that he racked up such staggering numbers.  125 rushing yards and 85 receiving yards against Arkansas, 181 rushing yards for 2 touchdowns and 27 receiving yards against Florida.  A definitive "Heisman moment" in the always difficult Iron Bowl against Auburn for 203 rushing yards with a spectacular 57 yard run.  And probably the most telling statistic is what he accomplished in the loss against LSU and the unquestionably best defense in the nation: 89 rushing yards and another 80 receiving in that "boring" game of the century.  His season all purpose totals are 1,910 yards for 23 touchdowns.  These factors combined tell me Trent Richardson will either place second overall or bring Tuscaloosa its second Heisman Trophy in the last three years (also ever).

Robert Griffin III would've fallen under "dark horse" candidate in the beginning of the season, and that might be an overstatement.  As usual, not much was expected from the Baylor Bears as preseason polls had them unranked and receiving no votes (putting them at best No. 51), but a stunning performance in the season opener against No. 14 TCU had the nation wondering where this prodigy with the fancy name had been its whole life, and the stellar throwing just kept coming.  His completion ratings vary from high 60s to low 90s, which is amazing even at practice.  What might hurt his resume are his team's losses.  A loss makes every player on the field look bad, and it always reflects on the Heisman ballot, even though the Heisman is an individual award.  What might remedy this are his stats on his worst lost.  Against an obviously very talented Oklahoma State, he may have thrown two interceptions, but still managed to rack up 425 yards in the air, and put up 24 points.  Numbers like those usually never result in an 'L'.  His "Heisman moment"?  Well he seems to be constantly having one.  From strong performances under difficult circumstances to the sheer number of yardage in a season, Robert Griffin III lives the "Heisman moment".  His end of regular season stats read 3,998 passing yards, 36 touchdowns, and only 6 interceptions.  He's tied in my mind for the trophy with Trent Richardson.



Montee Ball has been a staple in Wisconsin football for the last three years, so unlike RG3, he's no secret.  What shines about Ball is his new-found athleticism.  He lost 28 pounds over the off season to add speed and more importantly, elusiveness.  He's been cutting out of defenders' grasps and finding the endzone time and time again.  His other golden ticket lies in his number touchdowns.  He has 38 of them (all purpose).  To give you an idea, Trent Richardson has 23.  Quite frankly, that number alone got him in the Heisman debate.  What will deter voters is Wisconsin's use of Montee Ball.  He has a similar amount of rushing yards to Trent Richardson but 12 more rushing touchdowns.  When you look at Wisconsin's stats, Ball has more touchdowns than the team has passing touchdowns.  He has more than four times the touchdowns as their leading receiver Nick Toon.  Wisconsin is a one-trick pony and everyone knows it.  Whether they only give the ball to Ball in the redzone to pad stats or to win games is the coach's business, but with such a heavy touchdown to total yardage ratio, voters will consider these stats skewed.  Combine that with the argument that the level of defenses he's played against don't match those of the SEC, and things don't look too hopeful for Montee Ball.  He will, however, have a significant effect on the vote.  As a running back with 38 touchdowns, voters will be split from Trent Richardson's campaign.  Montee ball has a total of 2,014 yards for the 38 touchdowns.

Tyrann Mathieu is the "Honey Badger".  There's little debate that LSU fields the nation's best defense, and there's no debate that Mathieu is LSU's best defender.  He covers the whole field, tracks down the ball, and most importantly, makes game changing plays on special teams.  He's your do-it-all defensive back, a security blanket for any head coach.  As a defensive back, he's gonna be hard to compare to other offensive candidates, and as a cornerback, it's gonna be even harder.  Only one defensive back has ever won the Heisman Trophy, and even he lined up at wide receiver occasionally.  Offensive plays get the ball and are expected to do something with it.  Defensive players are supposed to cover their man, and if they do it well enough, nothing will happen.  That man won't be passed the ball, and as a corner, a running back has to escape some closer defenders before reaching him.  This is why Mathieu has a thin stat sheet; average tackles, average sacks, even average interceptions (2), because Tyrann Mathieu plays excellent coverage.  One defensive stat that does stick out is forced fumbles; he has five of them, and scooped two of those up for touchdowns.  What's most exceptional about Mathieu is his punt return ability.  Teams who've played LSU have had to punt a lot, and when they do, Honey Badger makes them pay.  He averages 16.15 yards per return (when not calling a fair catch) and has returned four of them for touchdowns, one of which was returned at the 8 yard line.  Voters will be conflicted to put Mathieu any higher than 4th for two reasons.  First, it's too hard to compare defensive backs against the skill positions.  If Mathieu had more sacks or more interceptions, he might have made more waves in the poll, and second, Mathieu was suspended for a game for breaking LSU's drug policy, and is considered a bit of a "dirty" player.  As mentioned earlier, voters like to see off the field attitudes that reflect their athletic performances.  I have Mathieu around 4th place, but Honey Badger don't give a . . .

Arnaldo's Heisman ballot:

Trent Richardson

Robert Griffin III

Andrew Luck

Tyrann Mathieu

Montee Ball

Arnaldo's Heisman prediction:

Robert Griffin III

Trent Richardson

Andrew Luck

Montee Ball

Tyrann Mathieu