Gator Bowl: University of Florida v. Ohio State University

by Arnaldo

The "Urban Bowl".  An unfair moniker in my opinion with Urban Meyer having nothing to do with this bowl game, but it is the featured storyline nonetheless.  And why not?  Florida and Ohio State are both in a dismal state of despair.  They are not typically 6-6 programs, and Urban Meyer becomes the source of despair for one program, and the source of hope for the other.

"Do battle, my children!"

What's at Stake?


Fans of each program who started the season with big expectations might just want to get this season over with, but there is serious pride on the line for both teams.  Both narrowly escaped losing their very long bowl eligibility streaks, but at 6-6 each, one squad is going home with a losing record.  Ohio State hasn't sustained a losing season since 1988 when they finished 4-6-1, their first year under John Cooper, and the Gators haven't had one since 1979 when they went 0-10-1, their first year under Charley Pell.  Note that this is the longest active winning season streak in FBS.


Florida


Year one under Will Muschamp with a new coaching staff and a new style of play, the Gators were destined for some growing pains.  Combined with injuries across the field and one of the hardest schedules of all time (back to back National Championship contenders in Alabama and LSU) and the result is a soft defense and a nonexistent offense.  Florida suffered its first under .500 SEC season since 1986.  The most recent blow has been celebrity offensive coordinator Charlie Weis's decision to take the Kansas head coach job and forgo his play-calling duties for the Gator Bowl.  Running backs coach Brian White will be taking the reins as interim offensive coordinator, effectively "trying out" for the still vacant job for the 2012 season.  The Gators will be playing the without right tackle Matt Patchman, who sustained a back injury during practice last week, or defensive tackle Dominique Easley, who suffered a season-ending knee injury against against Florida State.


Ohio State


Ohio State is in no better shape.  After the violations by players selling jerseys and other memorabilia for cash and tattoos in 2010, Jim Tressel resigned and Terrelle Pryor left to enter the supplemental draft, leaving Ohio State under interim head coach Luke Fickell and an unexpected disappointing season.  Last month, the NCAA further sanctioned Ohio State with a one-year bowl ban (2012) and the loss of nine scholarships over three years, effectively punishing a team two years removed from the actions of players no longer on the team and a brand new coaching staff under Urban Meyer.  Sure there's not much else the NCAA can do, but don't ever call them swift or fair.  The Buckeyes went 3-5 in Big 10 competition, capping their season with a loss to archrival Michigan for the first time in seven meetings.  Ohio State will be playing the Gator Bowl without injured tight end Jake Stoneburner or running back Rod Smith (unknown off-the-field reasons), but linebacker Andrew Sweat will be returning from his concussion.


Keys to Victory


Both teams are hot and cold.  Florida has had moments when they held their own against competition like Alabama and Georgia, but others when the offense is can't find a first down and the defense looks like they've never seen a run game before.  Ohio State has been competitive, either winning or losing most of their games by ten or fewer points.

For Florida, the key to this game is fairly simple: establish an offense.  The Gators this year are either producing solid offensive gains, or stuck in neutral, 3 downs at a time.  Like most games this season, it's going to come down to John Brantley and a shake offensive line.  Brantley has proven he can momentarily pretend to be Tom Brady, carving chunks of field against the nation's best secondaries, and then switch gears to throw uninformed passes and consecutive interceptions.  He works terribly under pressure, so a Patchmanless offensive line needs to man their gaps and give Johnny decent pocket time.  Just as importantly, they'll need to run block better than they have all season to give Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps sufficient room to find open space, where they can be lethal against a slow Buckeye defense.  If the Gators are to win, they'll do it the same way they did the only other time they met up with Ohio State, with speed.  On defense, if the Gators can reproduce the Florida State performance, even without Dominque Easley, they should be fine.  Solid tackling and containing OSU's quick-footed quarterback, Braxton Miller, are key.


For Ohio State, it also comes down to a shaky dual-threat quarterback in true freshman Braxton Miller.  While hoisting undeniable running and tackle-breaking abilities, Miller handles pressure like any true freshman would and is quick to rely on his feet.  To relieve some pressure, the Buckeyes need to establish an effective run game and keep the Gators' blitz game in check.  Miller needs to be kept out of impossible situations and in his comfort zone, where he passes effectively.  On option runs or when the pocket does break down, which it will, Miller just needs to focus on what he does best, and take off.  The Gators will put extra emphasis on containing Miller so he and his receivers need to exploit defenders who may give up on their assignments when they see him on the move for some clutch passing opportunities.  On defense, the Buckeyes need to improve all around, especially their linebackers, to keep a potentially effective Florida offense in check.  They can't magically get faster, so to win, they'll need to play smarter.  Defensive coordinators Jim Heacock and Luke Fickell will need to prepare for anything and everything against the new play-caller in Brian White across the field.

Because of the inconsistencies in both teams this season, making an accurate prediction is extra tough, but in an informed and slightly biased twist, I'm going to have to pick:

Gators over the Buckeyes 24-21 in overtime.

Let's go for more of this!

Special thanks to Chris Pinson for his Ohio State expertise.