National Signing Day

by Arnaldo

Since this is a blog for everybody, including, and especially, those less knowledgeable, let's explain recruiting real quick.

Coaches and scouts for college programs spend all year traveling to high schools talking to prospective recruits, watching them play, and discussing why they should come to their institution.  If a coach is impressed with a player, he'll schedule home visits during the offseason and invite the potential recruit to visit the campus during a football game weekend in the fall, with dozens of phone calls in between.

The recruit juggles several pursuing coaches, visits, and offers while trying to graduate high school.  When they've reached a decision, they'll typically let the coach know how committed they are towards the institution, but until the papers are signed on National Signing Day, absolutely nothing is final.  Verbal commitments mean very little now a days.  Recruits sometimes decommit from one program only to commit to another and then subsequently decommit all over again.

"Recruiting's kind of like shaving.  If you don't do it every day, you look like a bum." - Will Muschamp

This leads to a good amount of National Signing Day drama and plenty to cover on ESPN, which held an eleven-hour block of live coverage.  We're gonna examine some of the National Signing Day drama that affected Florida, and the incoming freshmen that should make an immediate impact for the 2012 season.

I should mention that all recruits get rated two ways:  a 1-5 star rating, and a national rank.  There are several entities that rate recruits but the most popular are Rivals and ESPNU.  Then, an aggregate score determines a national ranking for overall recruiting classes for a school.  These are usually great for getting an idea of how talented a player and class should be, but in reality they should be taken with a giant grain of salt.  None of these players have made it to the SEC field of play yet.  A strong recruiting class determines very little actual success down the line.  Florida recruited the nation's top class in 2008 and look at all the national championships that class won for us in their four years.  

Okay, so we won one with them as freshmen, but that just brings me to my next point.  Players don't usually make the starting teams until their sophomore year, at least.  Only about an eighth of the class will see the field at any given game their first year.  That 2008 National Championship was won by the impressive sophomore and junior classes and the only freshman who really contributed was Jeff Demps.  The moral of the story is to not take any ratings for any player or recruiting class too seriously, sometimes these recruits prove they were underrated, and oftentimes they prove they were overrated in the years to come.

National Signing Day 

So what happened on National Signing Day for the Gators?  In short, not much.  We had already had 21 commitments and went into February 1st expecting news on a handful of swing prospects, the ones that decided to withhold their announcements until the very last moment.  Recruits do this for a variety of reasons, the most popular of which is simply to become famous.  If a five-star recruit announces where he'll be playing in the summer before his senior year in high school, it barely makes a blog.  No one is that interested quite yet.  However, if that same player withholds his announcement until say, the All-American Game, or National Signing Day, he gets treated like Tim Tebow.  Less than half of these guys have truly successful college careers and even fewer end up in the NFL so this kind of publicity is a lifetime achievement, even though they haven't actually done anything yet.  Once they sign, they become first year players and are back on the bottom of a totem pole where they'll only be noticed if they play spectacularly, or get arrested.

Or sometimes, both.

The second reason is simple:  they still can't decide where to play.  This even applies to the recruits who have decided where they're going.  Like I said earlier, even verbally committed players change their minds on National Signing Day.

Florida had essentially four recruits that could still chose the Gators:  Nelson Agholor, Tracy Howard, Raphael Andrades, and Stefon Diggs.  In a one-two punch, both Agholor and Howard chose against us.  Agholor, a five-star athlete chose USC, and Howard, a five-star cornerback (and the No. 1 CB in the nation) chose Miami.  A bit of a blow considering both players are among the nation's elite.  Later that day a big surprise came when five-star defensive end, Dante Fowler Jr., announced he was coming to UF.  Though heavily recruited by Florida, Fowler kept saying he was "100%" a Florida State Seminole.  No one, especially FSU, expected him to decommit and join the Gators, marking an always satisfying victory over FSU.  Soon after, three-star wide receiver Raphael Andrades committed to UF.  The only piece of the puzzle left was five-star wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who opted to visit Maryland after National Signing Day, postponing his decision to February 10, delaying this article to today, two weeks after.  Diggs decided on Maryland over Florida, wrapping up our 2012 class to 23, and ranking us (according to Rivals) No. 3 recruiting class behind Alabama and Texas. 

You mad, Bros?

Players to Watch 

In general the entire class looks good and favors what the Gators lacked in 2011.  8 of the 23 are defensive linemen, which is a huge amount for a class.  Will Muschamp knows his top rebuilding needs are at the line of scrimmage, both of them.  

D.J. Humphries.  Who's ready to block?!

This brings up our top recruit, D.J. Humphries, five-star offensive tackle and the nation's top offensive lineman.  Rivals has him ranked No. 2 overall player, as in regardless of position.  He should make an immediate impact on pass rush protection, and power running game.  Offensive tackle is probably the least glorious position in football but for last years Gators squad, it was the most transparent.  Between the amount of John Brantley sacks and lack of run yardage accumulated, the impact D.J. Humphries has next year, even as a freshman, should be night and day.

Dante Fowler Jr., moments after flip flopping from
FSU to Florida. 

The next two players I'm most excited about happen to play the same position, which is great for us:  Jonathan Bullard and Dante Fowler Jr.  They'll both help contribute immediately to the depth of a defensive line that already oozes talent but has lacked productivity.  Excess depth is always the best solution for such a problem and both of these players happen to be two of the nation's best at defensive end (both five-star).  Fowler Jr., who has played both end and outside linebacker, will be a good fit at the buck position with Ronald Powell and William Green.

Is it me, or does he kind of look like John Brantley?

No matter what the recruit rankings say, the quarterback position is always incredibly difficult to predict.  Elite quaterbacks may come from no where while highly touted ones may disappear.  Enter Skyler Mornhinweg, a three-star prospect who happens to be the son of Marty Mornhinweg, the offensive coordinator of the Philadelphia Eagles.  Needless to say, Skyler has football pedigree and a full time quarterback coach on his side.  I'm not here to say the Gators need him, but a year after recruiting two out of the top three quarterbacks, depth and competition are definitely healthy.  Look for solid competition between Jeff Driskel, Jacoby Brissett, Tyler Murphy, and Skyler Mornhinweg. 

Lastly, here is the entire 2012 Florida Gators class (position / hometown / high school / size).

Florida Gators Recruiting Class of 2012

Raphael Andrades  ★ ★ ★ 
WR / Tallahassee, FL/ Lincoln / 6'0'' 190 lbs

Willie Bailey  ★ ★ ★ 
DB / Hallandale, FL / Hallandale / 6'1'' 167 lbs

Jonathan Bullard  ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ 
DE / Shelby, NC / Crest / 6'3'' 263 lbs

Bryan Cox Jr.  ★ ★ ★ 
DE / Fort Lauderdale, FL / St. Thomas Aquinas / 6'3'' 247 lbs

Jessamen Dunker  ★ ★ ★ ★ 
OL / Boynton Beach, FL / Boynton Beach / 6'4'' 320 lbs

Dante Fowler Jr.  ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ 
LB/DE / St. Petersburg, FL / Lakewood / 6'3'' 261 lbs

Austin Hardin  ★ ★ 
K / Atlanta, GA / Marist / 5'10'' 204

D.J. Humphries  ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ 
OL / Charlotte, NC / Mallard Creek / 6'6'' 271 lbs

Damien Jacobs  ★ ★ ★ ★ 
DT / Houma, LA / H. L. Bourgeois / 6'4'' 290 lbs

Matt Jones  ★ ★ ★ ★ 
RB / Seffner, FL / Armwood / 6'2'' 213 lbs

Rhaheim Ledbetter  ★ ★ ★ 
S / Shelby, NC / Crest / 5'11'' 195 lbs

Jafar Mann  ★ ★ ★ 
DT / Stone Mountain, GA / Stephenson / 6'3'' 293 lbs

Marcus Maye  ★ ★ ★ ★ 
S/ Melbourne, FL / Holy Trinity Episcopal / 5'11'' 200 lbs

Alex McCalister  ★ ★ ★ 
LB / Clemmons, NC / West Forsyth / 6'6'' 223 lbs

Skyler Mornhinweg  ★ ★ ★ 
QB / Philadelphia, PA / St. Joesph's / 6'3'' 190 lbs

Antonio Morrison  ★ ★ ★ ★ 
LB / Bolingbrook, IL / Bolingbrook / 6'1'' 209 lbs

Omari Phillips  ★ ★ ★ ★ 
DT / Venice, FL / Venice / 6'6'' 315 lbs

Latroy Pittman  ★ ★ ★ ★ 
WR / Citra, FL / North Marion / 6'0'' 195 lbs

Brian Poole  ★ ★ ★ ★ 
CB / Bradenton, FL / Southeast / 5'10'' 202 lbs

Jeremi Powell  ★ ★ ★ ★ 
LB / Largo, FL / Pinellas Park / 6'1'' 193 lbs

Kent Taylor  ★ ★ ★ ★ 
TE / Land O'Lakes, FL / Land O'Lakes / 6'5'' 225 lbs

Colin Thompson  ★ ★ ★ ★ 
TE / Warminster, PA / Archbishop Wood / 6'4'' 252 lbs

Quinteze Williams  ★ ★ ★ 
DE / Tyrone, GA / Sandy Creek / 6'5'' 255 lbs

BCS National Championship: Louisiana State University v. University of Alabama

by Arnaldo

It's the "Rematch" of the "Game of the Century"!  What more could you want out of a National Championship?

Funny to ask since a large minority of pundits and fans would rather see Les Miles' old team, Oklahoma State, try their best against his new team, LSU, but that's behind us so let's focus on the match-up at hand: Nick Saban's old team, LSU, against his new team, Alabama (see what I did there?).  We haven't seen a rematch in the title game since 1996 when Florida beat Florida State, who had previously lost to FSU at the end of the regular season.  That game should inspire hope, in the days before the big game, that we should see the best game college football has to offer, and that anything can happen.  As for the coaches, there's plenty of talent on both sides.  Nick Saban has won two titles with LSU and Alabama, and Les Miles was here four years ago with LSU.

"Umm . . . Awkward?"

Round I: FIGHT!


So how should this game play out?  Well luckily we already saw these teams duke it out.  First of all, let me just say, that game was not boring.  I mean, you may have been bored watching it, but there's nothing boring about a stalemate, the culmination of solid, mistake-free, perfectly coached football.  For most teams, there's a looseness about calling and executing plays when a team usually has a go-to play with a high rate of success.  This wasn't that.  This was 60 minutes of high tension and insurmountable anxiety.  Neither coach could call the wrong play; neither group of players could make a single mistake, the other team would capitalize.  When you have two teams with great offenses but phenomenal defenses, this is the type of game you're gonna see.


Round II:  FIGHT!

For those of you who did think the first match up was boring, you should be pleasantly surprised with this National Championship game.  There should be more scoring this time.  These teams have an advantage most college football teams never have: extensive experience against each other.  Watching film on your opponent's last match up is one thing; having actual experience is a whole 'nother game.  These coaches have footage on how exactly each player should match up against their assignment.  They don't have to estimate how to give their offensive/defensive line the edge, they don't have to look at 40-times to match up receivers on defensive backs.  They were already there.  Unlike the NFL, college teams very rarely play each other more than once, and players are constantly moving around; having actual field time against the opponent is a Christmas gift neither Nick Saban nor Les Miles will take for granted.  This should translate to slightly more success on offense for both teams.  Look at the NFL where teams have to play their three divisional rivals twice per season.  Nine out of ten times, the second game will be higher scoring than the first.  Each team will be more confident on the success of their plays and will be a bit more liberal with their play-calling.  Expect to see a few more long passes and at least two more touchdowns than before.

On the opposite side of the coin, each coaching staff knows what the other team is studying, and know what didn't work the first time around.  As a result, expect plays, coverages, and especially blitzes you've never seen from each team before.


Keys to Victory


For LSU, it's one word: consistency.  Les Miles prides himself on consistency, but something is getting lost in translation.  LSU is undefeated because of three things: near-perfect defense, near-perfect special teams, and a stellar offensive line, but LSU is not a perfect team.  There is a severe lack of consistency in the offense, namely the skill positions.  They're quick fix has been their depth.  Two quarterbacks (though expect much more, if not all Jordan Jefferson over Jarret Lee), five runningbacks, constantly in rotation.  When one guy drops the ball (both literally and metaphorically) Miles just sends in his replacement.  It's like covering holes with duct tape; it's not a real fix.

CB Tyrann Mathieu

As an offense, LSU is hot and cold.  They've gotten away with being so inconsistent because the defense gives them infinite opportunities and their special teams gives them favorable field position, or touchdown returns.  The problem is that eventually, and against the top defense in all major categories in Alabama, all cylinders have to click, or the entire game will break apart.  They beat Alabama the first time because they were hot.  Against Georgia, they were cold.  The first half of the SEC Championship game saw an LSU offense that could produce zero first downs and -2 yards.  Now, Georgia's defense is good, but Alabama's is the best.  A performance like that will not be forgiven next Monday and will result in a steady field position battle that Alabama can easily win.  Expect a good battle in the trenches between LSU's offensive line and Bama's defensive front.  LSU likes to run the ball a lot whether it's from the I to Singleback and a good amount of spread option.  Either way, a strong (and always consistent) offensive line and five effective and healthy running backs will deliver a solid run game.  If LSU wins, however, the difference maker will be special teams.  With one of the best punters in the nation and definitely the best punt returner in the nation (Tyrann Mathieu), LSU's special teams has the ability to inch their team closer to the endzone on each possession transition.  Make no mistake, the field position battle will be THE most important in this game.


For Alabama, it all goes back to Nick Saban.  Love him or hate him, there's no smarter coach in football, and with him comes a big strategic advantage: his team didn't have to play on championship week and LSU's offensive holes were severely exposed against Georgia's defense in the first half.  You can bet Nick was licking his lips watching the golden footage while his team gets an extra week to rest.  Alabama needs to limit Jordan Jefferson to either the pass or run game.  Alabama's defense is first in every major category so it should be pretty easy to stop the weak passer.  With LSU focusing on their powerful run game, they'll need to use their outside option game to widen the box to set up good interior runs.  Alabama's only weakness is outside linebacker speed and defending the option (they allowed 307 run yards against the triple-option FCS Georgia Southern).  In their last meeting, LSU was very capable of moving the ball on outside speed options.  Look for Saban to keep his linebackers a little more spread out and prepared for outside options.  There may also be less use of a true Buck (hybrid linebacker/defensive end).  Either way, Saban will be out to turn LSU into a one-dimensional offense.  One-dimensional teams do not win against Nick Saban.

RB Trent Richardson

On offense, expect a lot, a lot, of Trent Richardson.  LSU may have a better offensive line, but not by much, and they don't have a Trent Richardson.  My personal pick for the Heisman, he's more than a runningback.  He's an all around athlete.  He's their leading rusher, obviously, with 1583 yards, but is also curiously Alabama's second highest receiver with 327 yards.  That's not a lot for a receiver, but having a do-it-all player on the field opens up all sorts of possibilities.  Throwing good screens, checkdowns, and underneath patterns to a talented runningback is like running a spread offense.  It'll force a defense to spread out into looser zones, and make bigger passing lanes for Marquis Maze, and also even more running lanes for Trent Richardson.  As I mentioned, special teams will play a huge part of this game and Alabama will be prepared.  They don't have the same return game as LSU, but they will be well prepared for Tyrann Mathieu and company.  On punts, look for Alabama to sacrifice punt blockers to suffocate Mathieu and force him to fair catch.

Arnaldo's prediction:

Alabama beats LSU 20-10

Gator Bowl: University of Florida v. Ohio State University

by Arnaldo

The "Urban Bowl".  An unfair moniker in my opinion with Urban Meyer having nothing to do with this bowl game, but it is the featured storyline nonetheless.  And why not?  Florida and Ohio State are both in a dismal state of despair.  They are not typically 6-6 programs, and Urban Meyer becomes the source of despair for one program, and the source of hope for the other.

"Do battle, my children!"

What's at Stake?


Fans of each program who started the season with big expectations might just want to get this season over with, but there is serious pride on the line for both teams.  Both narrowly escaped losing their very long bowl eligibility streaks, but at 6-6 each, one squad is going home with a losing record.  Ohio State hasn't sustained a losing season since 1988 when they finished 4-6-1, their first year under John Cooper, and the Gators haven't had one since 1979 when they went 0-10-1, their first year under Charley Pell.  Note that this is the longest active winning season streak in FBS.


Florida


Year one under Will Muschamp with a new coaching staff and a new style of play, the Gators were destined for some growing pains.  Combined with injuries across the field and one of the hardest schedules of all time (back to back National Championship contenders in Alabama and LSU) and the result is a soft defense and a nonexistent offense.  Florida suffered its first under .500 SEC season since 1986.  The most recent blow has been celebrity offensive coordinator Charlie Weis's decision to take the Kansas head coach job and forgo his play-calling duties for the Gator Bowl.  Running backs coach Brian White will be taking the reins as interim offensive coordinator, effectively "trying out" for the still vacant job for the 2012 season.  The Gators will be playing the without right tackle Matt Patchman, who sustained a back injury during practice last week, or defensive tackle Dominique Easley, who suffered a season-ending knee injury against against Florida State.


Ohio State


Ohio State is in no better shape.  After the violations by players selling jerseys and other memorabilia for cash and tattoos in 2010, Jim Tressel resigned and Terrelle Pryor left to enter the supplemental draft, leaving Ohio State under interim head coach Luke Fickell and an unexpected disappointing season.  Last month, the NCAA further sanctioned Ohio State with a one-year bowl ban (2012) and the loss of nine scholarships over three years, effectively punishing a team two years removed from the actions of players no longer on the team and a brand new coaching staff under Urban Meyer.  Sure there's not much else the NCAA can do, but don't ever call them swift or fair.  The Buckeyes went 3-5 in Big 10 competition, capping their season with a loss to archrival Michigan for the first time in seven meetings.  Ohio State will be playing the Gator Bowl without injured tight end Jake Stoneburner or running back Rod Smith (unknown off-the-field reasons), but linebacker Andrew Sweat will be returning from his concussion.


Keys to Victory


Both teams are hot and cold.  Florida has had moments when they held their own against competition like Alabama and Georgia, but others when the offense is can't find a first down and the defense looks like they've never seen a run game before.  Ohio State has been competitive, either winning or losing most of their games by ten or fewer points.

For Florida, the key to this game is fairly simple: establish an offense.  The Gators this year are either producing solid offensive gains, or stuck in neutral, 3 downs at a time.  Like most games this season, it's going to come down to John Brantley and a shake offensive line.  Brantley has proven he can momentarily pretend to be Tom Brady, carving chunks of field against the nation's best secondaries, and then switch gears to throw uninformed passes and consecutive interceptions.  He works terribly under pressure, so a Patchmanless offensive line needs to man their gaps and give Johnny decent pocket time.  Just as importantly, they'll need to run block better than they have all season to give Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps sufficient room to find open space, where they can be lethal against a slow Buckeye defense.  If the Gators are to win, they'll do it the same way they did the only other time they met up with Ohio State, with speed.  On defense, if the Gators can reproduce the Florida State performance, even without Dominque Easley, they should be fine.  Solid tackling and containing OSU's quick-footed quarterback, Braxton Miller, are key.


For Ohio State, it also comes down to a shaky dual-threat quarterback in true freshman Braxton Miller.  While hoisting undeniable running and tackle-breaking abilities, Miller handles pressure like any true freshman would and is quick to rely on his feet.  To relieve some pressure, the Buckeyes need to establish an effective run game and keep the Gators' blitz game in check.  Miller needs to be kept out of impossible situations and in his comfort zone, where he passes effectively.  On option runs or when the pocket does break down, which it will, Miller just needs to focus on what he does best, and take off.  The Gators will put extra emphasis on containing Miller so he and his receivers need to exploit defenders who may give up on their assignments when they see him on the move for some clutch passing opportunities.  On defense, the Buckeyes need to improve all around, especially their linebackers, to keep a potentially effective Florida offense in check.  They can't magically get faster, so to win, they'll need to play smarter.  Defensive coordinators Jim Heacock and Luke Fickell will need to prepare for anything and everything against the new play-caller in Brian White across the field.

Because of the inconsistencies in both teams this season, making an accurate prediction is extra tough, but in an informed and slightly biased twist, I'm going to have to pick:

Gators over the Buckeyes 24-21 in overtime.

Let's go for more of this!

Special thanks to Chris Pinson for his Ohio State expertise.